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Lisse vs Rijnvogels Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

Lisse

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rijnvogels

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-16.7%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.0%1-111.4%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.5%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 49.3% — — —

Over 3.5 27.4% — — —

BTTS 50.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lisse1.7

Rijnvogels0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LISSE · PPG 2.20

RIJNVOGELS · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Lisse (H) 55.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rijnvogels (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lisse face Rijnvogels in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lisse a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Rijnvogels 21%, so Lisse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lisse and 0.9 for Rijnvogels (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lisse are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.80 for Rijnvogels. This match finished 1-4.

Lisse vs Rijnvogels Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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