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A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

A. Salzburg

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kapfenberger

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.77)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.7%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.7%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-16.8%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.6%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 16.8% — — —

Over 2.5 58.0% — — —

Over 3.5 35.5% — — —

BTTS 53.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.8%

H 63% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.4%

#2 1–0✓ 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Salzburg2.1

Kapfenberger1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

A. SALZBURG · PPG 1.33

KAPFENBERGER · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

A. Salzburg (H) 62.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kapfenberger (A) 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Salzburg face Kapfenberger in Austria - 2. Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Salzburg a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Kapfenberger 17%, so A. Salzburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for A. Salzburg and 1.0 for Kapfenberger (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Salzburg are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.77 for Kapfenberger. This match finished 1-0.

A. Salzburg vs Kapfenberger Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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