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M. Kharkiv vs Mariupol Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

M. Kharkiv

PPG 1.08 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Mariupol

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-17.9%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-111.6%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-18.4%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 16.8% — — —

Over 2.5 35.5% — — —

Over 3.5 16.5% — — —

BTTS 37.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.1%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 1–1✓ 11.6%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

M. Kharkiv1.5

Mariupol0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.5% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

M. KHARKIV · PPG 1.08

MARIUPOL · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.08) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

M. Kharkiv (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mariupol (A) 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

M. Kharkiv face Mariupol in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives M. Kharkiv a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Mariupol 17%, so M. Kharkiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for M. Kharkiv and 0.7 for Mariupol (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, M. Kharkiv are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.75 for Mariupol. This match finished 1-1.

M. Kharkiv vs Mariupol Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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