Exeter City vs Bradford Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 46 St James Park· Exeter Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Exeter City PPG 1.41

1-2 MISS

Bradford PPG 1.09

Home· +16.2% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Exeter City face Bradford in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Exeter City a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Bradford 32%, so Exeter City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Exeter City and 1.2 for Bradford (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Exeter City are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.09 for Bradford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.3%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +16.2%

Draw 31.5%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +11.8%

Away 32.3%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -32.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.3% Odds: 1.85 -19.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% Odds: 3.25 -27.2%

BTTS 51.0% Odds: 1.70 -13.3%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Exeter City

1.25

Bradford

1.17

Model SuggestionBTTS -13.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -13.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+16.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away AVERAGE (1.09)