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Exeter City vs Bradford Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Exeter City

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bradford

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-110.4%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.2%1-113.0%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.1%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 31.3% 3.20 +16.2%

Draw 31.5% 28.2% 3.55 +11.8%

Away win 32.3% 47.6% 2.10 -32.2%

Over 2.5 43.3% 54.1% 1.85 -19.9%

Over 3.5 22.4% 30.8% 3.25 -27.2%

BTTS 51.0% 58.8% 1.70 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -42.2%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.0%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Exeter City1.2

Bradford1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EXETER CITY · PPG 1.41

BRADFORD · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Exeter City (H) 36.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +16.2%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +11.8%

Bradford (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Exeter City face Bradford in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Exeter City a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Bradford 32%, so Exeter City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Exeter City and 1.2 for Bradford (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Exeter City are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.09 for Bradford. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Exeter City vs Bradford Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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