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Barnsley vs Stockport Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Barnsley

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stockport

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.6%0-25.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.9%1-111.4%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.5%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.9%3-14.3%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 28.2% 3.55 +31.7%

Draw 28.0% 26.3% 3.80 +6.4%

Away win 34.9% 52.6% 1.90 -33.7%

Over 2.5 56.5% 64.5% 1.55 -12.4%

Over 3.5 34.1% 42.6% 2.35 -19.9%

BTTS 61.1% 67.6% 1.48 -9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.1%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barnsley1.5

Stockport1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.50

STOCKPORT · PPG 1.41

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Barnsley (H) 37.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +31.7%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.4%

Stockport (A) 34.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barnsley face Stockport in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barnsley a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Stockport 35%, so Barnsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Barnsley and 1.4 for Stockport (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barnsley are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.41 for Stockport. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Barnsley vs Stockport Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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