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Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Leyton Orient

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Burton Albion

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.3%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.9%1-112.7%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 56.5% 1.77 -29.9%

Draw 30.5% 27.0% 3.70 +12.8%

Away win 29.9% 23.3% 4.30 +28.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -21.0%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leyton Orient1.4

Burton Albion1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEYTON ORIENT · PPG 1.36

BURTON ALBION · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Leyton Orient (H) 39.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -29.9%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +12.8%

Burton Albion (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leyton Orient face Burton Albion in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leyton Orient a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Burton Albion 30%, so Leyton Orient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leyton Orient and 1.2 for Burton Albion (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leyton Orient are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.95 for Burton Albion. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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