Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 46 Brisbane Road· London Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Leyton Orient PPG 1.36

2-2 MISS

Burton Albion PPG 0.95

Away· +28.6% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Leyton Orient face Burton Albion in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leyton Orient a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Burton Albion 30%, so Leyton Orient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leyton Orient and 1.2 for Burton Albion (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leyton Orient are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.95 for Burton Albion. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.6%

Odds: 1.77 EV: -29.9%

Draw 30.5%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +12.8%

Away 29.9%

Odds: 4.30 EV: +28.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.2% Odds: 1.85 -14.5%

Over 3.5 24.7% Odds: 3.20 -21.0%

BTTS 53.0% Odds: 1.75 -7.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Leyton Orient

1.36

Burton Albion

1.16

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+28.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.95)