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Bolton vs Luton Town Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Bolton

PPG 2.14 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Luton Town

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.9%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 40.7% 2.46 +10.0%

Draw 29.1% 25.6% 3.90 +13.5%

Away win 26.2% 40.7% 2.46 -35.5%

Over 2.5 49.5% 66.7% 1.50 -25.8%

Over 3.5 27.6% 44.4% 2.25 -37.9%

BTTS 54.7% 70.4% 1.42 -22.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolton1.5

Luton Town1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLTON · PPG 2.14

LUTON TOWN · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=44.7%

Win probability 1X2

Bolton (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +10.0%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +13.5%

Luton Town (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolton face Luton Town in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolton a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Luton Town 26%, so Bolton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bolton and 1.1 for Luton Town (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolton are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.18 for Luton Town. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Bolton vs Luton Town Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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