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Port Vale vs Lincoln City Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Port Vale

PPG 0.95 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Lincoln City

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-113.8%0-210.3%0-35.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.7%2-15.5%2-24.1%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 21.7% 4.60 -4.3%

Draw 30.0% 25.6% 3.90 +17.0%

Away win 49.2% 59.5% 1.68 -17.3%

Over 2.5 42.3% 54.1% 1.85 -21.8%

Over 3.5 21.5% 32.3% 3.10 -33.4%

BTTS 47.4% 55.6% 1.80 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob47.4%

A 49% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 0–2✓ 10.3%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Vale0.9

Lincoln City1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT VALE · PPG 0.95

LINCOLN CITY · PPG 1.91

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Port Vale (H) 20.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.3%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +17.0%

Lincoln City (A) 49.2%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Vale face Lincoln City in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Vale a 21% chance, the draw 30% and Lincoln City 49%, so Lincoln City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Port Vale and 1.5 for Lincoln City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Vale are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.91 for Lincoln City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Port Vale vs Lincoln City Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions