Today / England - League One / Mansfield vs Cardiff City

Mansfield vs Cardiff City Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Mansfield

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cardiff City

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-110.6%0-27.1%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.5%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.6%2-25.1%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.3%3-13.0%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 28.6% 3.50 +9.6%

Draw 30.5% 26.0% 3.85 +17.4%

Away win 38.1% 52.6% 1.90 -27.6%

Over 2.5 46.4% 66.7% 1.50 -30.4%

Over 3.5 24.9% 44.4% 2.25 -44.0%

BTTS 53.3% 69.4% 1.44 -23.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.3%

D 30% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mansfield1.2

Cardiff City1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MANSFIELD · PPG 1.45

CARDIFF CITY · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Mansfield (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +9.6%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +17.4%

Cardiff City (A) 38.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mansfield face Cardiff City in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mansfield a 31% chance, the draw 31% and Cardiff City 38%, so Cardiff City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mansfield and 1.3 for Cardiff City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mansfield are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.73 for Cardiff City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 5-4.

Mansfield vs Cardiff City Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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