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Northampton vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Northampton

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Plymouth

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-110.9%0-28.4%0-34.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.7% 14.3% 7.00 +79.9%

Draw 29.1% 22.0% 4.55 +32.4%

Away win 45.2% 70.9% 1.41 -36.3%

Over 2.5 49.1% 65.4% 1.53 -24.9%

Over 3.5 27.2% 43.5% 2.30 -37.4%

BTTS 54.3% 60.6% 1.65 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northampton1.1

Plymouth1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHAMPTON · PPG 1.00

PLYMOUTH · PPG 1.64

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

59%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.64) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Northampton (H) 25.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +79.9%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +32.4%

Plymouth (A) 45.2%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northampton face Plymouth in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northampton a 26% chance, the draw 29% and Plymouth 45%, so Plymouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Northampton and 1.5 for Plymouth (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northampton are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.64 for Plymouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +79.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Northampton vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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