Northampton vs Plymouth Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 46 Sixfields Stadium· Northampton Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Northampton PPG 1.00

2-3 MISS

Plymouth PPG 1.64

Home· +79.9% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Northampton face Plymouth in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northampton a 26% chance, the draw 29% and Plymouth 45%, so Plymouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Northampton and 1.5 for Plymouth (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northampton are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.64 for Plymouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +79.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.7%

Odds: 7.00 EV: +79.9%

Draw 29.1%

Odds: 4.55 EV: +32.4%

Away 45.2%

Odds: 1.41 EV: -36.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.1% Odds: 1.53 -24.9%

Over 3.5 27.2% Odds: 2.30 -37.4%

BTTS 54.3% Odds: 1.65 -10.4%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Northampton

1.11

Plymouth

1.53

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+79.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.64) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)