Today / England - League One / Peterborough vs Doncaster

Peterborough vs Doncaster Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Peterborough

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Doncaster

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.3%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.8%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 39.7% 2.52 +18.7%

Draw 28.3% 27.4% 3.65 +3.3%

Away win 24.5% 39.7% 2.52 -38.3%

Over 2.5 51.1% 66.7% 1.50 -23.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 44.4% 2.25 -34.8%

BTTS 55.4% 71.4% 1.40 -22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterborough1.6

Doncaster1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERBOROUGH · PPG 1.36

DONCASTER · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Peterborough (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +18.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +3.3%

Doncaster (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterborough face Doncaster in England - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterborough a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Doncaster 25%, so Peterborough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Peterborough and 1.1 for Doncaster (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterborough are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.09 for Doncaster. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Peterborough vs Doncaster Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions