Today / Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 / Sanluqueno vs Alcorcon

Sanluqueno vs Alcorcon Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Group 2 - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Sanluqueno

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Alcorcon

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-112.2%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.3%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 24.4% 4.10 +65.2%

Draw 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

Away win 28.9% 55.6% 1.80 -48.0%

Over 2.5 31.7% 47.6% 2.10 -33.4%

Over 3.5 13.8% 26.3% 3.80 -47.6%

BTTS 38.9% 52.6% 1.90 -26.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 25.4%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob38.9%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 0–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1✓ 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sanluqueno1.1

Alcorcon0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SANLUQUENO · PPG 1.06

ALCORCON · PPG 1.13

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sanluqueno (H) 40.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +65.2%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.1%

Alcorcon (A) 28.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -48.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sanluqueno face Alcorcon in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sanluqueno a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Alcorcon 29%, so Sanluqueno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sanluqueno and 0.9 for Alcorcon (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sanluqueno are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Alcorcon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +65.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Sanluqueno vs Alcorcon Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Predictions