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Schwaben A. vs Ansbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Schwaben A.

PPG 0.87 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ansbach

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+13.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.0%0-24.7%0-32.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.7%1-18.8%1-28.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.4%3-14.5%3-24.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 50.0% 2.00 -26.2%

Draw 21.8% 27.0% 3.70 -19.3%

Away win 41.3% 33.3% 3.00 +23.9%

Over 2.5 70.1% 61.7% 1.62 +13.6%

Over 3.5 48.9% 38.5% 2.60 +27.1%

BTTS 69.9% 65.4% 1.53 +7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.9%

A 41% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3✓ 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schwaben A.1.8

Ansbach1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHWABEN A. · PPG 0.87

ANSBACH · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.87), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Schwaben A. (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -26.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -19.3%

Ansbach (A) 41.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schwaben A. face Ansbach in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schwaben A. a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Ansbach 41%, so Ansbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Schwaben A. and 1.9 for Ansbach (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schwaben A. are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.07 for Ansbach. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Schwaben A. vs Ansbach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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