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UCV vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 23:00

UCV

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puerto Cabello

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.6%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 33.3% 3.00 +38.0%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Away win 29.6% 43.5% 2.30 -19.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 46.5% 2.15 +15.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 26.7% 3.75 +18.9%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 46.5% 33.3% 3.00 +39.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV1.6

Puerto Cabello1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV · PPG 1.75

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UCV (H) 46.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +38.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Puerto Cabello (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV face Puerto Cabello in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Puerto Cabello 30%, so UCV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for UCV and 1.1 for Puerto Cabello (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Puerto Cabello. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +50.7%.

UCV vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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