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Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 22:00

Carabobo FC

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estudiantes de Merida FC

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.7%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-110.4%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-15.8%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 63.7% 1.57 -15.8%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 22.5% 18.2% 5.50 +14.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 55.6% 1.80 -3.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 51.3% 54.1% 1.85 -5.1%

Home O1.5 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Away O1.5 19.8% 25.0% 4.00 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.3%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo FC1.8

Estudiantes de Merida FC0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO FC · PPG 2.14

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo FC (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -15.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Estudiantes de Merida FC (A) 22.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo FC face Estudiantes de Merida FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo FC a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Estudiantes de Merida FC 23%, so Carabobo FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Carabobo FC and 0.8 for Estudiantes de Merida FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo FC are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.08 for Estudiantes de Merida FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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