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Monagas SC vs Metropolitanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Monagas SC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Metropolitanos FC

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-111.1%0-27.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.7%1-112.8%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.6%2-17.4%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.2%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

Draw 24.7% 34.5% 2.90 -17.0%

Away win 43.0% 40.0% 2.50 +7.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.1% 2.08 +11.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 26.7% 3.75 +18.9%

BTTS 55.7% 57.1% 1.75 -2.5%

Home O1.5 31.5% 38.2% 2.62 -17.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.2% 2.62 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.7%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 1–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monagas SC1.2

Metropolitanos FC1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MONAGAS SC · PPG 1.56

METROPOLITANOS FC · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monagas SC (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.0%

Metropolitanos FC (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monagas SC face Metropolitanos FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monagas SC a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Metropolitanos FC 43%, so Metropolitanos FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Monagas SC and 1.3 for Metropolitanos FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monagas SC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.58 for Metropolitanos FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Monagas SC vs Metropolitanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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