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Deportivo La Guaira vs Anzoátegui FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:00

Deportivo La Guaira

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Anzoátegui FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 69% chance

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.1%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-18.6%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.5%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-15.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 70.4% 1.42 -7.1%

Draw 20.1% 25.6% 3.90 -13.0%

Away win 14.5% 15.4% 6.50 -3.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 32.9% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 60.2% 65.4% 1.53 -7.9%

Away O1.5 18.8% 22.2% 4.50 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 65% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 8.6%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo La Guaira2.1

Anzoátegui FC0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA · PPG 1.42

ANZOÁTEGUI FC · PPG 1.00

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo La Guaira (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -7.1%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.0%

Anzoátegui FC (A) 14.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo La Guaira face Anzoátegui FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo La Guaira a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Anzoátegui FC 14%, so Deportivo La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.7 for Anzoátegui FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo La Guaira are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.00 for Anzoátegui FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Anzoátegui FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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