Today / Venezuela - Primera División / Portuguesa FC vs Zamora FC

Portuguesa FC vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:00

Portuguesa FC

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Zamora FC

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Home 53% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.0%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-110.6%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.5%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-13.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Draw 23.9% 32.3% 3.10 -15.6%

Away win 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 30.2% 26.7% 3.75 +13.3%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 50.8% 1.97 -1.7%

Away O1.5 18.8% 28.6% 3.50 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1✓ 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa FC1.8

Zamora FC0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA FC · PPG 1.92

ZAMORA FC · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa FC (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +4.3%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.6%

Zamora FC (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa FC face Zamora FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa FC a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Zamora FC 22%, so Portuguesa FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Portuguesa FC and 0.7 for Zamora FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa FC are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.90 for Zamora FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Portuguesa FC vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions