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Trujillanos FC vs Caracas FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:00

Trujillanos FC

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caracas FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.4%0-27.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.1%2-17.1%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.2%3-12.5%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 36.4% 2.75 -1.6%

Draw 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 36.3% 42.0% 2.38 -13.6%

Over 2.5 46.5% 43.5% 2.30 +7.0%

Over 3.5 26.1% 23.1% 4.33 +7.8%

BTTS 50.9% 52.4% 1.91 -2.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.9%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trujillanos FC1.1

Caracas FC1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TRUJILLANOS FC · PPG 0.90

CARACAS FC · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trujillanos FC (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.6%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Caracas FC (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trujillanos FC face Caracas FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trujillanos FC a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Caracas FC 36%, so Caracas FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Trujillanos FC and 1.2 for Caracas FC (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trujillanos FC are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.00 for Caracas FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.8%.

Trujillanos FC vs Caracas FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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