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Eichstatt vs Illertissen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Eichstatt

PPG 1.57 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Illertissen

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.3%0-24.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.0%1-110.5%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.2%3-14.9%3-23.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 31.3% 3.20 +33.1%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -20.1%

Away win 34.9% 50.0% 2.00 -30.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 56.5% 1.77 +8.7%

Over 3.5 39.1% 33.9% 2.95 +15.3%

BTTS 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eichstatt1.7

Illertissen1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EICHSTATT · PPG 1.57

ILLERTISSEN · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Eichstatt (H) 41.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +33.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -20.1%

Illertissen (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eichstatt face Illertissen in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eichstatt a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Illertissen 35%, so Eichstatt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Eichstatt and 1.5 for Illertissen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eichstatt are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.00 for Illertissen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Eichstatt vs Illertissen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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