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AZ Picerno vs Inter U23 Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:00

AZ Picerno

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Inter U23

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.9%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.5%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 46.5% 2.15 +7.1%

Draw 24.4% 35.7% 2.80 -19.0%

Away win 25.9% 30.3% 3.30 -8.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 46.5% 2.15 +15.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Home O1.5 49.3% 38.2% 2.62 +29.2%

Away O1.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AZ Picerno1.7

Inter U231.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AZ PICERNO · PPG 1.57

INTER U23 · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AZ Picerno (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +7.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.0%

Inter U23 (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AZ Picerno face Inter U23 in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AZ Picerno a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Inter U23 26%, so AZ Picerno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for AZ Picerno and 1.1 for Inter U23 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AZ Picerno are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.75 for Inter U23. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%.

AZ Picerno vs Inter U23 Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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