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Catania vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Girone C · Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:30

Catania

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Cosenza

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 50% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-17.2%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.8%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 64.5% 1.55 -22.2%

Draw 25.0% 30.3% 3.30 -10.5%

Away win 24.9% 17.2% 5.80 +26.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 45.5% 2.20 +11.3%

Over 3.5 29.9% 25.0% 4.00 +11.8%

BTTS 52.9% 48.8% 2.05 +8.4%

Home O1.5 48.1% 55.6% 1.80 -13.4%

Away O1.5 26.4% 15.4% 6.50 +43.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Catania1.6

Cosenza1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CATANIA · PPG 1.69

COSENZA · PPG 1.07

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Catania (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -22.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.5%

Cosenza (A) 24.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Catania face Cosenza in Italy - Serie C - Girone C on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Catania a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Cosenza 25%, so Catania are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Catania and 1.0 for Cosenza (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Catania are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.07 for Cosenza. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +83.8%.

Catania vs Cosenza Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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