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Schott Mainz vs S. Kickers Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Schott Mainz

PPG 0.47 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

S. Kickers

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-17.5%0-29.4%0-37.9%0-4+9.0%1 1-03.0%1-17.5%1-29.4%1-37.9%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.5%2-13.8%2-24.7%2-34.0%2-4+4.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.6%3-31.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.1% 23.8% 4.20 -45.0%

Draw 16.8% 23.8% 4.20 -29.4%

Away win 70.2% 62.5% 1.60 +12.3%

Over 2.5 68.2% 70.4% 1.42 -3.2%

Over 3.5 46.6% 47.6% 2.10 -2.1%

BTTS 58.2% 69.0% 1.45 -15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob58.2%

A 70% / xG 1.0-2.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 0–2 9.4%

#3 1–3 7.9%

#4 0–3 7.9%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schott Mainz1.0

S. Kickers2.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHOTT MAINZ · PPG 0.47

S. KICKERS · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.07) vs Home POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

Schott Mainz (H) 13.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -45.0%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -29.4%

S. Kickers (A) 70.2%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schott Mainz face S. Kickers in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schott Mainz a 13% chance, the draw 17% and S. Kickers 70%, so S. Kickers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Schott Mainz and 2.5 for S. Kickers (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schott Mainz are averaging 0.47 points per game versus 1.07 for S. Kickers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Schott Mainz vs S. Kickers Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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