Today / Italy - Serie B / Palermo vs Sampdoria

Palermo vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Matchday 3 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:30

Palermo

PPG 2.26 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Sampdoria

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

Home 56% chance

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.3%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-111.8%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.1%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 57.1% 1.75 -8.3%

Draw 24.9% 30.3% 3.30 -10.7%

Away win 22.7% 21.7% 4.60 +2.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 51.8% 54.1% 1.85 -4.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 52.4% 1.91 -8.1%

Away O1.5 26.1% 26.7% 3.75 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 12.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.8%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palermo1.6

Sampdoria0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PALERMO · PPG 2.26

SAMPDORIA · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palermo (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.7%

Sampdoria (A) 22.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palermo face Sampdoria in Italy - Serie B on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palermo a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Sampdoria 23%, so Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Palermo and 0.9 for Sampdoria (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palermo are averaging 2.26 points per game versus 0.95 for Sampdoria. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.7%.

Palermo vs Sampdoria Prediction— Italy - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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