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Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs NEOM Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:00

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

PPG 2.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

NEOM

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 74% chance

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-19.6%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 76.9% 1.30 -24.5%

Draw 20.9% 20.8% 4.80 +0.2%

Away win 21.0% 14.3% 7.00 +28.2%

Over 2.5 59.6% 73.5% 1.36 -18.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 49.3% 2.03 -26.1%

BTTS 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

Home O1.5 60.0% 79.4% 1.26 -24.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 29.2% 3.42 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.2%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Hilal Saudi FC2.1

NEOM0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-HILAL SAUDI FC · PPG 2.41

NEOM · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

74%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (H) 58.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -24.5%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +0.2%

NEOM (A) 21.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Hilal Saudi FC face NEOM in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 58% chance, the draw 21% and NEOM 21%, so Al-Hilal Saudi FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.9 for NEOM (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 1.43 for NEOM. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +27.8%.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs NEOM Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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