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Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 15:30

Al Khaleej Saihat

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

UPCOMING

Al Riyadh

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.0%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.2%1-19.8%1-26.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.5%3-16.1%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 46.5% 2.15 +0.6%

Draw 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -14.1%

Away win 30.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

Over 2.5 64.2% 57.1% 1.75 +12.3%

Over 3.5 42.9% 35.3% 2.83 +21.4%

BTTS 63.2% 61.7% 1.62 +2.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 48.5% 2.06 +14.9%

Away O1.5 42.2% 41.2% 2.43 +2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.2%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Khaleej Saihat1.9

Al Riyadh1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHALEEJ SAIHAT · PPG 1.07

AL RIYADH · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Khaleej Saihat (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.6%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.1%

Al Riyadh (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khaleej Saihat face Al Riyadh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Al Riyadh 30%, so Al Khaleej Saihat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.4 for Al Riyadh (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.69 for Al Riyadh. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +34.6%.

Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Riyadh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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