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Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:00

Jong Utrecht

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

FC Eindhoven

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.5%0-24.0%0-32.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.9%1-18.6%1-27.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.0%3-15.2%3-24.6%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 41.7% 2.40 +4.6%

Draw 21.0% 29.4% 3.40 -17.2%

Away win 35.4% 38.2% 2.62 -7.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 65.4% 1.53 +4.7%

Over 3.5 46.7% 44.4% 2.25 +5.1%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.4% 1.91 +6.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Utrecht1.9

FC Eindhoven1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG UTRECHT · PPG 1.09

FC EINDHOVEN · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jong Utrecht (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +4.6%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.2%

FC Eindhoven (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Utrecht face FC Eindhoven in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Utrecht a 44% chance, the draw 21% and FC Eindhoven 35%, so Jong Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jong Utrecht and 1.8 for FC Eindhoven (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.22 for FC Eindhoven. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +11.5%.

Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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