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Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:00

Jong PSV U21

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

UPCOMING

Den Bosch

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.9%0-22.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.6%1-18.4%1-26.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.3%3-16.4%3-24.8%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.7%4+-24.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 50.0% 2.00 +0.6%

Draw 21.1% 26.7% 3.75 -12.5%

Away win 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 75.2% 1.33 -9.0%

Over 3.5 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

BTTS 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Home O1.5 61.1% 66.7% 1.50 -8.3%

Away O1.5 43.1% 54.6% 1.83 -21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong PSV U212.1

Den Bosch1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG PSV U21 · PPG 1.84

DEN BOSCH · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jong PSV U21 (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +0.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.5%

Den Bosch (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong PSV U21 face Den Bosch in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong PSV U21 a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Den Bosch 29%, so Jong PSV U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Jong PSV U21 and 1.5 for Den Bosch (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.01 for Den Bosch.

Jong PSV U21 vs Den Bosch Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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