Homburg vs Fulda-Lehnerz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest Südwest - 31 Waldstadion Homburg· Homburg Saturday, April 25, 2026 12:00

Homburg PPG 1.67

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Fulda-Lehnerz PPG 1.33

Away· +25.4% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Homburg face Fulda-Lehnerz in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Homburg a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Fulda-Lehnerz 26%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Homburg and 1.2 for Fulda-Lehnerz (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Homburg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Fulda-Lehnerz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.3%

Odds: 1.55 EV: -22.0%

Draw 23.4%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -4.1%

Away 26.4%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +25.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.4% Odds: 1.50 -13.9%

Over 3.5 35.0% Odds: 2.20 -23.0%

BTTS 58.4% Odds: 1.53 -10.7%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Homburg

1.77

Fulda-Lehnerz

1.22

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+25.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5/Under 68%

BTTS/No 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -39.7%

Bet Hit 42% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)