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Homburg vs Fulda-Lehnerz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Homburg

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fulda-Lehnerz

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.1%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.9%1-110.9%1-26.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.7%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 64.5% 1.55 -22.0%

Draw 23.4% 24.4% 4.10 -4.1%

Away win 26.4% 21.1% 4.75 +25.4%

Over 2.5 57.4% 66.7% 1.50 -13.9%

Over 3.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

BTTS 58.4% 65.4% 1.53 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.4%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Homburg1.8

Fulda-Lehnerz1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOMBURG · PPG 1.67

FULDA-LEHNERZ · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Homburg (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -22.0%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.1%

Fulda-Lehnerz (A) 26.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Homburg face Fulda-Lehnerz in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Homburg a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Fulda-Lehnerz 26%, so Homburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Homburg and 1.2 for Fulda-Lehnerz (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Homburg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Fulda-Lehnerz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Homburg vs Fulda-Lehnerz Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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