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Hessen Kassel vs Balingen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Hessen Kassel

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Balingen

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.7%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.0%1-15.3%1-22.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.6%2-18.1%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-012.4%4+-113.3%4+-27.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.7% 73.5% 1.36 +4.3%

Draw 13.2% 21.7% 4.60 -39.3%

Away win 10.0% 14.8% 6.75 -32.5%

Over 2.5 77.8% 73.5% 1.36 +5.8%

Over 3.5 58.9% 51.8% 1.93 +13.7%

BTTS 62.6% 66.7% 1.50 -6.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.6%

H 77% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 3–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 4–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hessen Kassel3.0

Balingen1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.8% · O3.5 PROB 58.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HESSEN KASSEL · PPG 1.53

BALINGEN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Hessen Kassel (H) 76.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +4.3%

Draw 13.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -39.3%

Balingen (A) 10.0%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hessen Kassel face Balingen in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hessen Kassel a 77% chance, the draw 13% and Balingen 10%, so Hessen Kassel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Hessen Kassel and 1.1 for Balingen (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hessen Kassel are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.80 for Balingen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Hessen Kassel vs Balingen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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