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Dunav Ruse vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:30

Dunav Ruse

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

UPCOMING

Slavia Sofia

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.5%0-27.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.8%1-113.1%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.2%2-17.5%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 38.2% 2.62 -4.4%

Draw 26.9% 34.5% 2.90 -13.2%

Away win 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 45.5% 2.20 +11.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 31.2% 38.2% 2.62 -18.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 42.0% 2.38 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dunav Ruse1.1

Slavia Sofia1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNAV RUSE · PPG 1.06

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 1.21

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dunav Ruse (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -4.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.2%

Slavia Sofia (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dunav Ruse face Slavia Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dunav Ruse a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Slavia Sofia 37%, so Slavia Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dunav Ruse and 1.2 for Slavia Sofia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dunav Ruse are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.21 for Slavia Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Dunav Ruse vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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