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Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Spartak Varna

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

UPCOMING

CSKA Sofia

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away 61% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.9%0-29.7%0-35.3%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.5%2-15.8%2-24.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 20.0% 5.00 +6.9%

Draw 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 55.5% 63.7% 1.57 -12.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 23.1% 4.33 +33.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.9%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 11.9%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–2 9.7%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Varna1.0

CSKA Sofia1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK VARNA · PPG 1.28

CSKA SOFIA · PPG 1.59

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Varna (H) 22.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.9%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

CSKA Sofia (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Varna face CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Varna a 22% chance, the draw 22% and CSKA Sofia 56%, so CSKA Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Spartak Varna and 1.6 for CSKA Sofia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Varna are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.59 for CSKA Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.2%.

Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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