Today / Bulgaria - First League / Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Cherno More Varna

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.2%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.0%1-113.1%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-18.4%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 40.8% 2.45 +8.8%

Draw 26.7% 34.7% 2.88 -13.9%

Away win 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 38.4% 38.2% 2.62 +0.6%

Away O1.5 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.3

Cherno More Varna0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV · PPG 1.52

CHERNO MORE VARNA · PPG 0.94

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

54%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +8.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.9%

Cherno More Varna (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv Plovdiv face Cherno More Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Cherno More Varna 29%, so Lokomotiv Plovdiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.9 for Cherno More Varna (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv Plovdiv are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 0.94 for Cherno More Varna. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions