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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:15

Lokomotiv Sofia

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

UPCOMING

Ludogorets

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-111.8%0-29.3%0-34.8%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.7%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.9%2-16.1%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 20.0% 5.00 +15.3%

Draw 25.0% 26.7% 3.75 -3.8%

Away win 49.9% 65.4% 1.53 -23.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.4% 54.6% 1.83 -0.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 25.0% 4.00 +23.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.4%

A 50% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv Sofia1.0

Ludogorets1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV SOFIA · PPG 1.03

LUDOGORETS · PPG 1.90

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

55%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv Sofia (H) 25.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +15.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.8%

Ludogorets (A) 49.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv Sofia face Ludogorets in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Ludogorets 50%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.6 for Ludogorets (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv Sofia are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.90 for Ludogorets. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.3%.

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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