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Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:15

Levski Sofia

PPG 2.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

CSKA 1948

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.5%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-19.5%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-16.9%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 64.5% 1.55 -11.2%

Draw 21.3% 27.8% 3.60 -14.0%

Away win 21.4% 18.2% 5.50 +10.6%

Over 2.5 60.0% 54.1% 1.85 +11.0%

Over 3.5 37.2% 30.8% 3.25 +20.9%

BTTS 55.6% 55.6% 1.80 +0.1%

Home O1.5 60.2% 59.9% 1.67 +0.5%

Away O1.5 26.1% 23.1% 4.33 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -56.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.6%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levski Sofia2.1

CSKA 19480.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 2.55

CSKA 1948 · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Levski Sofia (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -11.2%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.0%

CSKA 1948 (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levski Sofia face CSKA 1948 in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levski Sofia a 57% chance, the draw 21% and CSKA 1948 21%, so Levski Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Levski Sofia and 0.9 for CSKA 1948 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levski Sofia are averaging 2.55 points per game versus 1.57 for CSKA 1948. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.4%.

Levski Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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