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Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 22 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:05

Orebro SK

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

UPCOMING

Ostersunds FK

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-113.0%0-28.9%0-34.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.6%2-16.3%2-24.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 38.2% 2.62 -19.6%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 42.7% 41.7% 2.40 +2.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 44.4% 2.25 -30.7%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro SK1.0

Ostersunds FK1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO SK · PPG 1.20

OSTERSUNDS FK · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orebro SK (H) 30.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -19.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Ostersunds FK (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro SK face Ostersunds FK in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro SK a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Ostersunds FK 43%, so Ostersunds FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orebro SK and 1.4 for Ostersunds FK (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro SK are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.27 for Ostersunds FK.

Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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