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Oberhausen vs Wuppertaler Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Oberhausen

PPG 1.87 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Wuppertaler

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-16.7%1-22.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.5%2-18.9%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.8%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-19.7%4+-23.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 73.5% 1.36 +5.1%

Draw 14.3% 21.1% 4.75 -32.1%

Away win 8.4% 15.6% 6.40 -46.2%

Over 2.5 66.2% 71.4% 1.40 -7.3%

Over 3.5 44.4% 50.0% 2.00 -11.2%

BTTS 49.7% 63.7% 1.57 -22.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.7%

H 77% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 66% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oberhausen2.6

Wuppertaler0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERHAUSEN · PPG 1.87

WUPPERTALER · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.87), Away POOR (0.87) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oberhausen (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +5.1%

Draw 14.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -32.1%

Wuppertaler (A) 8.4%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -46.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oberhausen face Wuppertaler in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oberhausen a 77% chance, the draw 14% and Wuppertaler 8%, so Oberhausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Oberhausen and 0.8 for Wuppertaler (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oberhausen are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.87 for Wuppertaler. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Oberhausen vs Wuppertaler Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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