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Fortuna Koln vs Wiedenbruck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

West - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Fortuna Koln

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wiedenbruck

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 90.1% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-11.0%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.4%1-13.4%1-20.9%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.1%2-15.9%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.8%3-16.7%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-026.8%4+-114.1%4+-23.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 90.1% 85.5% 1.17 +5.4%

Draw 7.1% 16.7% 6.00 -57.4%

Away win 2.7% 7.7% 13.00 -64.9%

Over 2.5 75.9% 76.9% 1.30 -1.3%

Over 3.5 56.3% 55.6% 1.80 +1.3%

BTTS 39.6% 55.6% 1.80 -28.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -37.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 85%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 90% / xG 3.5-0.5 / O2.5 76% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.8%

#2 2–0✓ 11.1%

#3 4–0 11.1%

#4 5–0 7.7%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortuna Koln3.5

Wiedenbruck0.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTUNA KOLN · PPG 2.20

WIEDENBRUCK · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fortuna Koln (H) 90.1%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV +5.4%

Draw 7.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -57.4%

Wiedenbruck (A) 2.7%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV -64.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortuna Koln face Wiedenbruck in Germany - Regionalliga - West on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortuna Koln a 90% chance, the draw 7% and Wiedenbruck 3%, so Fortuna Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Fortuna Koln and 0.5 for Wiedenbruck (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortuna Koln are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.20 for Wiedenbruck. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Fortuna Koln vs Wiedenbruck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - West

Match Preview & Prediction

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