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San Carlos vs Sporting San Jose Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 01:00

San Carlos

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

UPCOMING

Sporting San Jose

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-113.1%0-27.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.1%2-16.9%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.1%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 35.7% 2.80 -12.9%

Draw 28.3% 34.5% 2.90 -10.8%

Away win 40.5% 43.5% 2.30 -6.9%

Over 2.5 44.1% 45.5% 2.20 -3.0%

Over 3.5 23.9% 25.0% 4.00 -2.6%

BTTS 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

Home O1.5 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Carlos1.0

Sporting San Jose1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN CARLOS · PPG 1.32

SPORTING SAN JOSE · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Carlos (H) 31.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.8%

Sporting San Jose (A) 40.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Carlos face Sporting San Jose in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Carlos a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Sporting San Jose 41%, so Sporting San Jose are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for San Carlos and 1.1 for Sporting San Jose (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Carlos are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.30 for Sporting San Jose. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.1%.

San Carlos vs Sporting San Jose Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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