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Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 01:00

Seattle Reign FC W

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

UPCOMING

San Diego Wave W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.7%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.1%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 34.5% 2.90 +11.7%

Draw 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

Away win 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 57.1% 1.75 -11.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Home O1.5 34.0% 40.0% 2.50 -15.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 50.0% 2.00 -33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 99 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -13.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle Reign FC W1.2

San Diego Wave W1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE REIGN FC W · PPG 1.70

SAN DIEGO WAVE W · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

61%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Seattle Reign FC W (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +11.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.1%

San Diego Wave W (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle Reign FC W face San Diego Wave W in USA - NWSL on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Reign FC W a 39% chance, the draw 26% and San Diego Wave W 35%, so Seattle Reign FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Seattle Reign FC W and 1.1 for San Diego Wave W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Reign FC W are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 2.00 for San Diego Wave W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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