Today / USA - NWSL / Bay FC W vs Kansas City W

Bay FC W vs Kansas City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 02:00

Bay FC W

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

UPCOMING

Kansas City W

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.8%0-25.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.9%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.5%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 32.3% 3.10 +35.2%

Draw 26.4% 27.4% 3.65 -2.2%

Away win 29.9% 50.0% 2.00 -24.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 61.7% 1.62 -18.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 52.9% 66.7% 1.50 -20.6%

Home O1.5 38.4% 43.5% 2.30 -11.7%

Away O1.5 32.6% 55.6% 1.80 -41.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 9.1%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bay FC W1.3

Kansas City W1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAY FC W · PPG 1.10

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 0.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bay FC W (H) 43.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.2%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.2%

Kansas City W (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bay FC W face Kansas City W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bay FC W a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Kansas City W 30%, so Bay FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bay FC W and 1.1 for Kansas City W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bay FC W are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.64 for Kansas City W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%.

Bay FC W vs Kansas City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - NWSL Predictions