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Racing Louisville W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 22:30

Racing Louisville W

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

UPCOMING

Angel City W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.7%0-25.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-06.5%1-110.5%1-28.4%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.3%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.7%3-14.3%3-23.5%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 32.3% 3.10 +19.4%

Draw 23.6% 28.2% 3.55 -9.7%

Away win 37.9% 50.0% 2.00 -24.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 60.6% 1.65 +5.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.5% 2.60 +4.5%

BTTS 62.9% 65.4% 1.53 -3.8%

Home O1.5 46.8% 42.6% 2.35 +10.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.9%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Louisville W1.6

Angel City W1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 1.70

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Racing Louisville W (H) 38.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +19.4%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.7%

Angel City W (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Louisville W face Angel City W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Louisville W a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Angel City W 38%, so Racing Louisville W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Racing Louisville W and 1.6 for Angel City W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Louisville W are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.50 for Angel City W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.0%.

Racing Louisville W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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