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Portland Thorns W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Portland Thorns W

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWD

UPCOMING

Washington Spirit W

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.7%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.6%1-112.9%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.6%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 43.5% 2.30 +1.2%

Draw 27.3% 30.3% 3.30 -5.9%

Away win 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

Over 2.5 48.1% 57.8% 1.73 -16.8%

Over 3.5 27.2% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 50.4% 63.7% 1.57 -20.9%

Home O1.5 38.7% 48.1% 2.08 -19.5%

Away O1.5 32.1% 46.1% 2.17 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.4%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Thorns W1.3

Washington Spirit W1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND THORNS W · PPG 2.40

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W · PPG 1.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portland Thorns W (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.2%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.9%

Washington Spirit W (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Thorns W face Washington Spirit W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Thorns W a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Washington Spirit W 29%, so Portland Thorns W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Portland Thorns W and 1.0 for Washington Spirit W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Thorns W are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.91 for Washington Spirit W.

Portland Thorns W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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