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Chicago Red Stars W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

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UPCOMING

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-19.9%0-29.6%0-36.2%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.7%2-15.3%2-25.1%2-33.3%2-4+2.5%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% 17.2% 5.80 +18.6%

Draw 20.6% 23.8% 4.20 -8.1%

Away win 56.7% 71.4% 1.40 -20.6%

Over 2.5 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 47.6% 2.10 -15.6%

BTTS 58.7% 63.7% 1.57 -7.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 31.4% 3.18 -2.1%

Away O1.5 58.3% 71.9% 1.39 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.7%

A 57% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.9%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 0–2 9.6%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago Red Stars W1.0

North Carolina Courage W1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 1.30

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.91 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Chicago Red Stars W (H) 22.6%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +18.6%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.1%

North Carolina Courage W (A) 56.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago Red Stars W face North Carolina Courage W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago Red Stars W a 23% chance, the draw 21% and North Carolina Courage W 57%, so North Carolina Courage W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.9 for North Carolina Courage W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago Red Stars W are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.70 for North Carolina Courage W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.4%.

Chicago Red Stars W vs North Carolina Courage W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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