Today / USA - NWSL / Orlando Pride W vs Houston Dash W

Orlando Pride W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:00

Orlando Pride W

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

Houston Dash W

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.1%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.2%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

Draw 25.2% 28.6% 3.50 -7.1%

Away win 29.8% 26.3% 3.80 +7.9%

Over 2.5 51.4% 61.0% 1.64 -15.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.6% 2.59 -18.2%

BTTS 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 58.8% 1.70 -32.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 34.6% 2.89 -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 98 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pride W1.5

Houston Dash W1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 1.45

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pride W (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -22.1%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.1%

Houston Dash W (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pride W face Houston Dash W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pride W a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Houston Dash W 30%, so Orlando Pride W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orlando Pride W and 1.1 for Houston Dash W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pride W are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.73 for Houston Dash W.

Orlando Pride W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - NWSL Predictions