Today / USA - NWSL / Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Denver Summit W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL
Denver Summit W
PPG 1.50 · HOME
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
PPG 2.00 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-012.2% 0-113.1% 0-27.1% 0-32.5% 0-4+0.9% 1 1-012.5% 1-113.5% 1-27.3% 1-32.6% 1-4+0.9% 2 2-06.4% 2-16.9% 2-23.7% 2-31.3% 2-4+0.5% 3 3-02.2% 3-12.4% 3-21.3% 3-30.5% 3-4+0.2% 4+ 4+-00.7% 4+-10.8% 4+-20.4% 4+-30.1% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%
Draw 28.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.9%
Away win 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%
Over 2.5 44.5% 54.1% 1.85 -17.7%
Over 3.5 25.5% 33.3% 3.00 -14.1%
BTTS 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%
Home O1.5 30.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.3%
Away O1.5 32.7% 45.5% 2.20 -28.1%
League track record ↗
Based on 98 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5 51%
BTTS 52%
Score Hit 46%
ROI -6.6%
Bet Hit 54%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
1 – 1 31% CONFIDENCE
xG (home) 1.0 xG (away) 1.1 BTTS prob 49.9%
D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–1 13.5%
#2 1–0 12.5%
#3 0–0 12.2%
#4 0–1 13.1%
#5 2–1 6.9%
Form & verdict PPG
⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value Chance this pick lands 50% HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap -0.05, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability 1X2
Denver Summit W (H) 36.5%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (A) 35.6%
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 19 matches · 2026 Denver Summit W ▾ lower is better NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Attack
3.6 Shots outside box
3.2 35.1% Shooting accuracy
39.3% 36.7% Goals per shot on target
25.5% 1.59 xG for 6·6 of 19
1.70 Defence
4.1 Shots on target faced▾
3.9 1.32 Goals conceded▾
0.53 1.58 xG against▾ 6·6 of 19
1.25 Control
80.9% Pass accuracy
82.6% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Denver Summit W face NJ/NY Gotham FC W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denver Summit W a 37% chance, the draw 28% and NJ/NY Gotham FC W 36%, so Denver Summit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Denver Summit W and 1.1 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denver Summit W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W.
Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00
