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Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:00

Cruz Azul

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

UPCOMING

Santos Laguna

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 71% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.1%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.9%1-17.7%1-23.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.8%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-18.6%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 73.5% 1.36 -19.4%

Draw 19.5% 22.7% 4.40 -8.5%

Away win 21.2% 16.7% 6.00 +16.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 50.0% 2.00 -19.0%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 73.5% 1.36 -9.8%

Away O1.5 27.5% 29.4% 3.40 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 59% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–0 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruz Azul2.5

Santos Laguna1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZ AZUL · PPG 1.59

SANTOS LAGUNA · PPG 0.47

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cruz Azul (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -19.4%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -8.5%

Santos Laguna (A) 21.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul face Santos Laguna in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Santos Laguna 21%, so Cruz Azul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Cruz Azul and 1.0 for Santos Laguna (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.47 for Santos Laguna. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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