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UNAM Pumas U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

UNAM Pumas U21

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

UPCOMING

Club Leon U21

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.2%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.9%1-112.6%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.5%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 48.3% 2.07 -20.1%

Draw 26.0% 29.9% 3.34 -7.9%

Away win 35.4% 29.9% 3.34 +18.2%

Over 2.5 51.8% 50.0% 2.00 +3.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.5% 3.28 +3.6%

BTTS 54.6% 56.2% 1.78 -2.8%

Home O1.5 39.5% 47.4% 2.11 -16.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 34.1% 2.93 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–2 7.3%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNAM Pumas U211.4

Club Leon U211.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNAM PUMAS U21 · PPG 1.49

CLUB LEON U21 · PPG 1.49

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UNAM Pumas U21 (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.07 · IMPLIED 48.3% EV -20.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.34 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.9%

Club Leon U21 (A) 35.4%

ODDS 3.34 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNAM Pumas U21 face Club Leon U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNAM Pumas U21 a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Club Leon U21 35%, so UNAM Pumas U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for UNAM Pumas U21 and 1.2 for Club Leon U21 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNAM Pumas U21 are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.49 for Club Leon U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.7%.

UNAM Pumas U21 vs Club Leon U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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