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Pergolettese vs Union Brescia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Girone A · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Pergolettese

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Union Brescia

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-112.0%0-27.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.2%2-17.3%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 14.7% 6.80 +121.0%

Draw 28.8% 27.8% 3.60 +2.2%

Away win 38.7% 67.6% 1.48 -42.7%

Over 2.5 43.4% 45.5% 2.20 -4.5%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.8% 4.20 +4.5%

BTTS 47.2% 44.4% 2.25 +6.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 17.4% 5.75 +77.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 55.6% 1.80 -40.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 17.7%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1✓ 12.0%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pergolettese1.1

Union Brescia1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PERGOLETTESE · PPG 1.34

UNION BRESCIA · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.07, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pergolettese (H) 32.5%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +121.0%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.2%

Union Brescia (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -42.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pergolettese face Union Brescia in Italy - Serie C - Girone A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pergolettese a 33% chance, the draw 29% and Union Brescia 39%, so Union Brescia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Pergolettese and 1.2 for Union Brescia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pergolettese are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.69 for Union Brescia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +116.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Pergolettese vs Union Brescia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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