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Cadiz vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Cadiz

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DDD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Valladolid

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.9%0-24.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.4%1-112.6%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.0%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.5%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 40.3% 2.48 +18.1%

Draw 27.9% 33.3% 3.00 -9.8%

Away win 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Over 3.5 26.5% 23.1% 4.33 +8.8%

BTTS 48.4% 52.6% 1.90 -8.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 37.7% 2.65 +6.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cadiz1.4

Valladolid0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CADIZ · PPG 1.20

VALLADOLID · PPG 0.75

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cadiz (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +18.1%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.8%

Valladolid (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cadiz face Valladolid in Spain - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cadiz a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Valladolid 24%, so Cadiz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cadiz and 0.9 for Valladolid (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cadiz are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.75 for Valladolid. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +19.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Cadiz vs Valladolid Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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